Why Australians hoping to switch jobs are running out of time to join the Great Resignation

Why Australians are running out of time to switch jobs before ‘the Great Resignation’ ends

Australians hoping to switch jobs or find a new career may be running out of time to have the maximum choices before openings dry up.

ANZ’s monthly job ad series showed the number of advertised positions fell by 1.1 per cent in July.

This occurred despite unemployment in June falling to a 48-year low of 3.5 per cent.

ANZ senior economist Catherine Birch said the monthly fall in job ads could be a ‘signal we may be past the peak’.

The peak is occurring despite ANZ predicting the jobless rate falling even more to just 2.9 per cent by the March quarter of next year for the first time since 1974.

The number of job advertisements hit a 14-year high in March, with 242,068 jobs advertised on Seek or the federal government’s Jobsearch website.

Online job ads in July fell to 237,047.

Australians hoping to switch jobs or find a new career may be running out of time to have the maximum choices. ANZ’s monthly job ad series showed the number of advertised positions fell by 1.1 per cent in July (pictured is a stock image)

While the number of available jobs is falling, Ms Birch said the unemployment rate would still also fall because the effects of higher inflation and rising interest rates – which will result in reduced consumer spending and business closures – would take time to show.

‘Consequently, as higher inflation and rising rates curtail demand growth, it will take time for the gap between labour demand and supply to close enough to put upward pressure on unemployment,’ she said.

Competition from overseas job seekers is also returning gradually following the reopening of Australia’s border late last year, reducing the bargaining power and employment choices of local workers.

‘Newly arrived skilled migrants, temporary visa holders, students and backpackers are adding to the supply of workers, but also to already strong demand,’ Ms Birch said.

So, while the return of migration improves labour mobility and matching, it doesn’t mean the gap is going to close quickly.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics in June revealed 31 per cent of businesses surveyed by them in June struggling to find suitable staff.

The number of job advertisements hit a 14-year high in March, with 242,068 jobs advertised on Seek or the federal government's Jobsearch website. Online job ads in July fell to 237,047

The number of job advertisements hit a 14-year high in March, with 242,068 jobs advertised on Seek or the federal government’s Jobsearch website. Online job ads in July fell to 237,047

Separate official data in March showed that in February, 175,300 people classified as unemployed said they left their last job voluntarily to try something else, including starting a business, compared with 174,500 who lost their last job.

But with inflation in the year to June rising by 6.1 per cent – the fastest pace in two decades – along with consequent interest rate rises, consumer spending is likely to decline and create more unemployment in 2023.

Federal Treasury is forecasting a 3.75 per cent jobless rate in 2022-23 and an unemployment rate of 4 per cent in 2023-24.

The Reserve Bank of Australia has also updated its forecasts to have inflation hitting a 32-year high of 7.75 per cent by the end of this year, matching a Treasury forecast published last week.

Both Treasury and the RBA are expecting inflation to stay above the Reserve Bank’s two to three per cent target until 2024. 

The RBA raised the cash rate in August by another 0.5 percentage points, taking it to a six-year high of 1.85 per cent. 

The latest increase was the fourth consecutive monthly rise in a row, with borrowers copping 1.75 percentage points of increases since May – the most since 1994. 

All the big banks are expecting another 50 basis point rate rise in September with ANZ tipping a 10-year high 3.35 per cent cash rate by November. 

ANZ senior economist Catherine Birch said the monthly fall in job ads could be a 'signal we may be past the peak' (pictured is a stock image)

ANZ senior economist Catherine Birch said the monthly fall in job ads could be a ‘signal we may be past the peak’ (pictured is a stock image)

Read more at DailyMail.co.uk

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